极端温度事件对死亡的影响及其与空气污染的相互作用
Chuanlong Cheng1, Ying Liu2, Chuang Han1
1Department of Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Cheeloo College of Medicine, Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong, China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 21, 2024
概括
极端温度事件 (ETE) 显著增加死亡风险,特别是由于心血管和呼吸道原因. 外星生物与空气污染 (如PM2.5和臭氧) 之间的相互作用改变了这些健康影响,凸显了综合公共卫生战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 毒理学 毒理学 毒理学
背景情况:
- 极端温度事件 (ETE) 和空气污染对公众健康构成重大风险.
- 外星生物和空气污染对健康的独立影响已经得到了充分的证据,但它们的相互作用影响仍然不太清楚.
- 温度极端和空气污染物对死亡率的综合影响的研究有限.
研究的目的:
- 调查极端温度事件 (ETE) 和空气污染对齐博市死亡率的独立和互动影响.
- 确定易受这些联合暴露影响的脆弱人群,特别是按性别和年龄组 (≥65岁和<65岁) 划分.
- 探索ETE与特定空气污染物 (PM2.5,O3) 相互作用的季节性变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自齐博市 (2015-2019) 的每日死亡数据 (非意外,心血管,呼吸)
- 员工分布式滞后非线性模型用于评估ETE对健康的影响,以及非参数模型用于相互作用分析.
- 根据性别和年龄进行了子组分析,并进行了季节性分析,以检查ETE和空气污染物的联合影响 (PM2.5,O3).
主要成果:
- 异常现象与死亡率的增加有关,热浪的短期影响比寒冷时期更大.
- 在非意外死亡中,ETE和空气污染之间发现了显著的相互作用.
- 在寒冷的季节,PM2.5对死亡率的影响在寒冷时期减少 (对抗性相互作用). 在温暖的季节,热浪放大了高O3度的影响 (协同作用).
- 女性和65岁以上的个体表现出更高的敏感性,尽管子组差异并不总是统计学上显著.
结论:
- 极端温度事件与死亡率之间存在显著的关联,与空气污染有着显著的相互作用.
- 易受伤害的群体包括女性和老年人 (≥65岁).
- 公共卫生战略应同时解决改善空气质量和应对极端温度事件的准备,考虑到热浪与臭氧的协同效应以及寒冷时段与PM2.5.5的对抗效应.
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