评估非药物干预对消费者移动模式和美国COVID-19传播的影响
Joseph Zuccarelli1,2, Laura Seaman1, Kevin Rader2
1The Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA.
International journal of environmental research and public health
|January 22, 2024
概括
政府的干预措施,如工作场所关闭,在COVID-19大流行期间显著降低了消费者支出. 这些移动性变化与COVID-19病例增长放缓有关,表明非药物干预措施 (NPIs) 是有效的.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 随着COVID-19的流行,消费者流动性发生了前所未有的全球变化.
- 政府授权的非药物干预措施 (NPIs) 被实施以制疾病传播.
- 了解NPI对流动性和传播的影响对于公共卫生政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 通过销售点 (POS) 信用卡交易量化NPI和消费者流动性之间的关系.
- 评估POS交易变化与COVID-19病例增长率之间的关联.
- 为马萨诸塞州和密歇根州早期NPI的有效性提供定量证据.
主要方法:
- 使用线性和通用线性混合效应模型.
- 分析了个人销售点 (POS) 信用卡交易.
- 检查了县级COVID-19病例增长率及其与流动性变化之间的相关性.
主要成果:
- 在NPI和每日POS交易之间发现了显著的负相关性,表明支出减少.
- 观察到一种剂量-反应关系,更严格的NPI导致交易减少.
- 在POS交易的滞后变化和随后的COVID-19病例增长之间存在显著的积极关联.
结论:
- 早期非药物干预 (NPI) 在COVID-19大流行期间有效地减少了人类的流动性.
- 通过POS交易来衡量,流动性减少与COVID-19传播率的降低有关.
- 该研究提供了量化证据,支持NPI对决策者的有效性.
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