一个动态的附加和多重效应网络模型,适用于联合国的投票行为
Bomin Kim1, Xiaoyue Niu2, David Hunter2
1Freddie Mac.
The annals of applied statistics
|January 22, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一个动态网络回归模型来分析联合国随时间推移的投票模式. 该模型揭示了影响投票行为的关键因素,并突出了不断发展的外交政策联盟.
科学领域:
- 社交网络分析 社交网络分析
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 统计建模 统计建模
背景情况:
- 分析联合国的投票行为需要考虑时间依赖和网络动态的模型.
- 现有的网络模型,如添加和乘法效应网络模型 (AMEN),可能无法完全捕捉随时间变化的网络结构和缺失的数据.
研究的目的:
- 为相关的,时间变化的网络引入动态回归模型.
- 以时间动态和缺少数据的容纳来扩展添加和乘法效应网络模型 (AMEN).
- 分析1983-2014年联合国大会投票数据.
主要方法:
- 开发了添加和乘法效应网络模型 (AMEN) 的动态扩展.
- 整合了一个时间结构来建模网络随时间的演变.
- 考虑了两种类型的缺失数据,允许随时间变化的网络大小.
- 通过模拟验证模型组件.
主要成果:
- 模拟证实了模型组件的必要性.
- 将模型应用于联合国大会投票数据 (1983-2014).
- 确定了解释国家投票行为的重要因素.
- 估计的加法和乘法效应揭示了动态的外交政策立场和联盟.
结论:
- 动态网络模型有效地捕捉了国际关系中的时间依赖.
- 该模型提供了对外交政策和国家联盟的演变的见解.
- 这种方法增强了对多边组织投票行为的理解.
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