热带气旋特定的死亡风险和关注时期:一项多国时间序列研究
Wenzhong Huang1, Zhengyu Yang1, Yiwen Zhang1
1Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia.
PLoS medicine
|January 22, 2024
概括
热带气旋 (TC) 带来了显著的死亡风险,平均20天的关注期 (POC). 这些风险和POC因国家而异,需要针对气候变化适应量身定制的公共卫生战略.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 气候变化影响气候变化的影响.
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 在气候变化下,预计热带气旋 (TC) 将加剧.
- 在全球不同地区和时间范围内对TC死亡率影响的理解有限.
- 需要描述时空模式和暴露-反应 (ER) 关系.
研究的目的:
- 评估TC特定的死亡风险和关注期 (POC).
- 描述TC死亡率的时空模式.
- 在多国规模上分析TC特征和死亡率之间的暴露-反应 (ER) 关系.
主要方法:
- 利用来自18个国家的494个地点 (1980-2019) 的每日死亡数据 (所有原因,心血管,呼吸道)
- 使用参数风场模型 (≥34节) 定义的TC暴露.
- 采用混合波桑和元回归模型来估计死亡风险和ER关系.
主要成果:
- 观察到TC相关死亡率的平均POC为~20天,在美国,巴西和台湾的持续时间更长.
- 特定于TC的死亡相对风险 (RR) 差异很大,危地马拉,巴西和新西兰的风险更高.
- 从1980年到2019年,发现TC死亡风险普遍下降,在日本有显著的例外和增加趋势.
结论:
- 在各种事件,地点和国家中,TC死亡风险和POC表现出相当大的变化.
- 具体区域战略对于减轻TC相关的健康负担至关重要.
- 对POC和ER曲线的流行病学证据,考虑到TC变异性,对于有针对性的干预措施至关重要.
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