使用计数回归模型估计有限人群中的生育率的新方法
Shakeel Ahmed1, Olayan Albalawi2, Javid Shabbir3
1School of Natural Sciences, NUST, H-12 Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan. shakeel.ahmed@sns.nust.edu.pk.
Scientific reports
|January 22, 2024
概括
基于模型的方法可以使用巴基斯坦人口健康调查数据来改善生育率估计. 这种方法增强了人口统计指标,特别是在不完整的调查答案的情况下.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 人口健康调查 (DHS) 对于了解人口动态至关重要.
- 传统的基于设计的生育率估计方法有局限性.
- 基于模型的方法可以利用社会人口统计学因素进行更精确的估计.
研究的目的:
- 用回归模型评估社会人口统计和计划生育因素对出生人数的影响.
- 估计关键的生育指标 (特定年龄的生育率,总生育率等). 通过基于模型的方法.
- 与传统方法相比,评估基于模型的生育率估计器的性能.
主要方法:
- 将各种回归模型 (古典和贝叶斯) 与巴基斯坦人口健康调查2017-2018年数据相匹配.
- 使用非线性模型对1,3年和5年期间的出生数进行建模.
- 采用启动的采样算法来评估基于模型的生育率估计.
主要成果:
- 社会人口统计和计划生育因素显著影响出生人数.
- 基于模型的方法为各种生育指标提供估计.
- 特定年龄的生育率在某些年龄组显示过高和低估.
结论:
- 推基于模型的生育率估计用于国家和次国家人口统计指标估计.
- 当调查数据中缺少或不完整的答案时,这种方法特别有用.
- 该研究强调了先进的统计建模在人口统计研究中的实用性.
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