评估不同的机器学习算法来预测在急诊室停留的时间:一个单中心研究
Carlo Ricciardi1, Marta Rosaria Marino2, Teresa Angela Trunfio3
1Department of Electrical Engineering and Information Technology, University of Naples "Federico II", Naples, Italy.
Frontiers in digital health
|January 23, 2024
概括
使用机器学习预测急诊室停留时间 (ED-LOS) 可以帮助减少患者等待时间并提高医疗保健效率. 随机森林算法在预测长期ED-LOS方面表现最好.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健管理的管理
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 紧急部门 (ED) 拥挤是一个关键的全球医疗保健问题.
- 服务需求增加和医院病床数量有限加剧了ED拥挤.
- 延长ED停留时间 (ED-LOS) 是ED瓶的关键指标,影响死亡率和医疗费用.
研究的目的:
- 通过选择一组患者和ED工作流特征来预测ED-LOS.
- 确定影响患者在急诊室花费时间的关键因素.
- 开发ED-LOS的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自"圣乔凡尼·迪·迪奥·埃·鲁吉·达拉哥纳"大学医院 (2014-2019) 的496,172名患者入院的数据集.
- 分析的因素包括患者年龄,性别,分拣水平,入院时间和到达方式.
- 使用机器学习算法,包括随机森林,来预测ED-LOS.
主要成果:
- 28.9%的入院患者经历了长时间的ED-LOS.
- 64岁以上的患者受到长期ED-LOS的影响最大.
- 随机森林算法在预测ED-LOS.中获得了最高的准确度 (74.8%),精度 (72.8%),和回忆率 (74.8%).
结论:
- 患者属性和ED过程显著影响ED-LOS.
- 开发的预测模型显示了预测和管理ED-LOS的前景.
- 实施这种模式可以帮助防止ED拥挤,并优化运营效率.
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