气候变暖正在扩大美洲和亚洲的登革热负担
Marissa L Childs1,2, Kelsey Lyberger3,4, Mallory Harris3
1Department of Nutrition, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, United States.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|January 23, 2024
概括
气候变化显著增加登革热发病率,特别是在较冷的地区. 未来的变暖可能会大大增加全球登革热病例,到本世纪中叶将影响数百万人.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对公共卫生构成重大威胁,特别是传染病,如登革热.
- 最近登革热负担的增加与气候变化有关,但缺乏量化.
研究的目的:
- 量化过去和未来人为气候变化对登革热发病率的影响.
- 评估不同地理区域温度和登革热传播之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 收集了来自亚洲和美洲21个国家的数据集.
- 分析了温度和登革热发病率之间的非线性关系.
- 在低排放和高排放场景下模拟未来登革热发病率.
主要成果:
- 确定了非线性温度与登革热发病率的关系,峰值发病率在27.8°C.
- 估计的历史气候变化使登革热发病率平均增加了18%.
- 预计未来的变暖可能会使登革热发病率在本世纪中叶增加49%-76%.
- 据估计,在研究地区的2.62亿人,在高排放下,到本世纪中叶登革热发病率可能翻一番.
结论:
- 人类引起的变暖对大多数特有地区的登革热负担产生了重大影响.
- 调查结果为公共卫生规划和风险减轻策略提供了基础.
- 迫切需要采取行动,以应对气候变化对传染病传播的影响.
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