挪威和瑞典在COVID-19大流行期间的死亡率2020-22:一项比较研究
Per-Henrik Zahl1, Örjan Hemström2, Rune Johansen1
1Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Division of Mental and Physical Health Oslo, Norway.
Journal of infection and public health
|January 23, 2024
概括
瑞典的COVID-19死亡率明显高于挪威,经过调整后的差异在30个月后缩小到30%. 这凸显了不同流行病减缓策略对公共卫生结果的影响.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
背景情况:
- 挪威实施了严格的COVID-19封锁和边境管制,而瑞典则采取了更宽松的做法.
- 这些对比的策略导致了2020年COVID-19死亡人数的巨大差异:挪威的477人与瑞典的9,737人相比.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较挪威和瑞典之间的COVID-19死亡率.
- 分析不同公共卫生干预措施对流行病结果的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用了2020-2022年每周的COVID-19和总死亡数据,与2015-2019年过度死亡率计算的基线数据进行比较.
- 在高传播期间使用过度死亡率作为COVID-19死亡的代理,并在过度死亡率由于流离失所而变得负面时调整为报告偏差.
主要成果:
- 在研究期间,瑞典记录了17521例COVID-19死亡,挪威为4272例.
- 瑞典与挪威的COVID-19死亡的粗率比率在2022年底为2.11.
- 在调整了死亡率,流离失所和封锁措施后,该比率下降到1.35,这表明挪威大约挽救了2025人的生命.
结论:
- 无论是直接的COVID-19死亡人数还是过度死亡率估计都可能存在偏见.
- 经过调整后的分析显示,瑞典和挪威之间的死亡率差异随着时间的推移而减少,瑞典经历了大约30%的高死亡率,大流行后30个月.
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