绿色技术进步,能源投入份额和碳排放趋势研究研究
YuXin Liu1, Ping Lei2, BingYang Shen3
1School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences (BEIJING), Beijing, 100083, China.
Scientific reports
|January 23, 2024
概括
绿色技术的进步通过规模和技术效应影响碳排放. 虽然规模增加了排放,但技术减少了排放,导致碳排放增长率的总体下降.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 技术创新技术创新技术创新
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 了解绿色技术与碳排放之间的关系对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往简化了技术进步,经济活动和环境影响之间的复杂相互作用.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个理论机制,详细说明绿色技术进步如何影响碳排放增长.
- 确定有利于实现碳峰值和碳减排目标的条件.
- 实证地分析绿色技术进步和能源投入对碳排放的份额的定量影响.
主要方法:
- 根据科布-道格拉斯生产函数开发了一个三部门模型 (资本,劳动力,能源).
- 利用了从1995年到2020年的省级面板数据.
- 使用能源消耗和区域排放系数计算的二氧化碳排放量.
- 采用永久库存方法来计算资本和绿色技术进步率.
- 应用了可行通用最小方程 (FGLS) 面板模型进行实证分析.
主要成果:
- 绿色技术进步通过规模效应 (系数:0.607) 对碳排放增长产生积极影响.
- 绿色技术进步通过技术效应对碳排放增长产生负面影响 (系数: -0.667).
- 绿色技术进步的综合效应导致碳排放增长的减少 (系数: -0.06).
- 能源投入的份额正面地减轻了规模效应.
结论:
- 绿色技术的进步,尽管可以增加排放的规模效应,最终降低了整体碳排放增长率.
- 这些发现突显了技术进步在实现气候目标方面的重要性.
- 能源投入管理是调节绿色技术对环境影响的关键因素.
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