智利的极端火灾天气是由气候变化和厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 驱动的
Raúl R Cordero1, Sarah Feron2,3, Alessandro Damiani4
1Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Av. Bernardo O'Higgins 3363, Santiago, Chile.
Scientific reports
|January 23, 2024
概括
智利在2023年经历了严重的野火,与极端天气有关. 厄尔尼诺现象和气候导致的干旱显著增加了智利中部的火灾风险和活动.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 近年来,智利的野火活动急剧增加,过去十年有170万公的土地被烧毁.
- 在智利有记录的七个最具破坏性的火灾季节中,有六个发生自2014年以来.
- 极端天气条件,包括高温,低湿度,干旱和强风,是导致野火蔓延的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 在过去二十年中,分析与智利中部火灾风险增加相关的天气状况的进展.
- 调查厄尔尼诺现象以及气候造成的干旱和热浪对最近强烈火灾活动的影响.
- 探索热带东太平洋变异性在调节智利季节性火灾天气和跨年火灾活动中的作用.
主要方法:
- 分析过去二十年来智利中部地区的天气数据和火灾记录.
- 火灾天气条件 (温度,湿度,干燥度,风) 和被烧毁区域之间的相关性分析.
- 调查厄尔尼诺-南方振荡 (ENSO) 事件,特别是尼诺1+2区域的温暖异常对火灾活动的影响.
主要成果:
- 在过去的20年里,导致野火迅速蔓延的火灾天气条件在智利中部加剧了.
- 厄尔尼诺现象,干旱和热浪的同时出现大大增加了当地的火灾风险,导致2017年和2023年的强烈火灾季节.
- 热带东太平洋的变化,特别是尼诺1+2地区的温暖异常,与智利的季节性火灾天气和跨年火灾活动密切相关.
结论:
- 气候变化和ENSO正在加剧智利的火灾天气条件,导致野火风险增加和破坏性的火灾季节.
- 了解太平洋变化的影响对于预测和管理智利中部未来野火活动至关重要.
- 迫切需要采取战略来缓解智利因气候模式变化而不断升级的野火威胁.
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