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在气候变化下,中国果的潜在适合息地

Jianling Li^1,2,3,4, Changrong Deng^1,2,3,4, Guozhen Duan^1,2,3,4

¹Academy of Agriculture and Forestry Sciences, Qinghai University, Xining, China.

Frontiers in plant science

|January 24, 2024

概括

气候变暖有利于果 (Lycium barbarum L.) 的种植,扩大了中国的适合息地. 这项研究确定了最佳地区,尽管存在生产挑战,但确保提供高质量的医用古吉果.

科学领域:

农业科学农业科学
环境科学环境科学
药理学是指药理学,即药理学是指药理学.

背景情况:

果 (Lycium barbarum L.) 是一个具有全球意义的药用草本.
由于成本上升和土地利用政策,中国大地区的种植减少,造成了供应短缺.
确定适合种植的替代种植区对于满足市场对高品质古吉果的需求至关重要.

研究的目的:

通过气候变化预测,预测目前和未来适合在中国种植大果的息地.
分析环境变量对古吉果分布的影响.
为了指导种植,并确保提供高品质的Daodi Goji 果.

主要方法:

使用MaxEnt (最大) 建模来预测适合果息地.
使用ArcGIS软件分析了当前和未来气候场景下的适合区域的空间变化.
评估了环境变量,包括温度和降水,以评估它们对戈吉果分布的影响.

主要成果:

马克森特模型在最佳参数下显示了高精度 (AUC和TSS>0.90).
最冷季度的平均温度和降水被确定为影响分布的关键变量.
预计在未来的气候情景下,适合息地将大幅扩大,特别是在东北部地区,在宁夏和甘省确定了关键地区.

结论:

气候变暖有利于扩大中国的Daodi Goji 果种植区.
该研究确定了包括Baiyin,Zhongwei和Wuzhong在内的特定地区,这些地区对高质量的古吉果生产充满希望.
调查结果解决了供应缺口,并为可持续的古吉种植提供了指导.

关键词:

达奥迪 (Daodi) 达奥迪 (Daodi) 达奥迪 (Daodi) 达奥迪 (Daodi) 达奥迪这种植物是Lycium barbarum.马克斯恩特马克斯恩特气候变化气候变化气候变化潜在的分布可能是分布的.

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