冬季小麦产量差距的空间预测:农业气候模型和机器学习方法
Seyed Rohollah Mousavi1, Vahid Alah Jahandideh Mahjenabadi2, Bahman Khoshru2
1Soil Science and Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural, College of Agriculture & Natural Resources, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
Frontiers in plant science
|January 24, 2024
概括
这项研究确定了关键的土壤和环境因素,如土壤有机碳和总,这些因素显著影响小麦产量. 机器学习模型,特别是人工神经网络,准确地预测了小麦产量,并确定了大量的产量差距,表明改善农业管理的潜力.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 土壤科学 土壤科学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 机器学习在农业中的应用
背景情况:
- 准确预测小麦产量对于粮食安全和有效的农业管理至关重要.
- 确定WY的关键土壤和环境驱动因素对于优化灌农田作物生产至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经探索了各种方法,但将先进的机器学习与农业气候数据集成为准确的WY预测提供了新的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定最有影响力的土壤和环境因素来预测伊朗帕萨加德平原的小麦产量.
- 开发和比较机器学习算法 (随机森林和人工神经网络) 来绘制实际的小麦产量.
- 评估产量差距,并为提高农业生产和确保粮食安全提供见解.
主要方法:
- 收集了60个土壤样本和1200公的小麦谷物数据,分析了实验室属性.
- 利用粮农组织农业气候方法来评估可实现的 WY,并使用皮尔森相关性来选择土壤属性.
- 应用随机森林 (RF) 和人工神经网络 (ANN) 具有地形属性和植被指数来绘制实际WY,使用k-fold进行不确定性分析.
主要成果:
- 土壤有机碳 (SOC) 和总 (TN) 与WY.有显著的正相关性.
- SOC,TN,正常化差异植被指数 (NDVI) 和通道网络基层 (CHN) 被确定为最重要的预测因素,解释了超过50%的WY变化.
- 人工神经网络 (ANN) 的表现优于射频,R2为0.75,RMSE为400 kg ha-1和RPD为2.79,预测不确定性低.
结论:
- 将作物生长模拟 (FAO-Agro-Climate) 与机器学习 (ANNs) 结合起来,可以有效预测大型农业区的小麦产量差距.
- 鉴定到的约50%的产量差距凸显了通过有效的管理实践提高小麦产量的巨大潜力.
- 该研究为推进可持续农业和为全球粮食安全努力做出贡献提供了宝贵的见解.
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