未来气候变化对北半球的平流层与热带层交流驱动臭氧的影响
Shovan Kumar Sahu1,2,3, Lei Chen2,3, Song Liu2,3,4
1Centre for Climate Research Singapore, Meteorological Service Singapore, Singapore 537054, Singapore.
概括
未来对大气臭氧 (O3) 度的估计对于政策制定至关重要. 平流层与热层的交换对O3有很大的影响,由于气候变化,预计会有区域差异.
科学领域:
- 大气化学 大气化学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境政策 环境政策
背景情况:
- 热层臭氧 (O3) 度受到排放和平流层-热层交换 (STE) 的影响.
- 准确的STE估计对于预测未来的基层O3和为政策提供信息至关重要.
- 了解STE的作用是管理大气污染物度的关键.
研究的目的:
- 根据未来的气候情景,量化 STE 对热层 O3 分布的影响.
- 评估对O3.3的STE贡献的区域差异.
- 在气候变化下比较 STE 和非 STE 过程对 O3 的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用O3-潜在旋转 (PV) 参数化方案来估计STE的影响.
- 与模拟的O3混合比率进行比较,使用和不使用光伏方案.
- 根据RCP8.5和RCP4.5情景,分析了不同地区和季节的STE和非STE过程的O3贡献.
主要成果:
- 对于北半球整体来说,STE对O3的贡献保持不变,但呈现出区域差异.
- 欧洲 (欧元) 和中国东部 (ECH) 在RCP8.5.5下在特定季节增加了STE贡献.
- 气候变化 (RCP8.5与RCP4.5) 导致了ECH和欧元中 STE贡献的增加.
- 在夏季,非STE工艺占据了O3的主导地位,而在冬季,STE工艺更为重要.
- 欧元显示了最高的STE贡献,而ECH显示了最高的非STE贡献.
结论:
- STE对地面O3有很大的影响,其贡献因地区和季节而异.
- 预计未来的气候变化将改变STE对O3的影响,特别是在EUR和ECH等地区.
- 没有一个地区在所有季节都显示出持续低的 STE 贡献 (<50%),这突显了 STE 对未来 O3 水平的持续重要性.
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