在气候变化下,Prosopis juliflora - - 世界上最严重的100种外来入侵物种之一 - - 的全球空间分布,使用多种机器学习模型
S Vazeed Pasha1, C Sudhakar Reddy2
1Forest Biodiversity and Ecology Division, National Remote Sensing Centre, ISRO, Balanagar, Hyderabad, 500 037, India. vazeedpashashaik@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 24, 2024
概括
气候变化促进了入侵物种的传播. 这项研究预测了Prosopis juliflora的全球入侵风险,确定了脆弱区域,并告知了保护工作对其扩张的信息.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 侵袭性物种管理 侵袭性物种管理
背景情况:
- 气候变化是外来入侵物种全球传播的重要驱动因素.
- 了解入侵物种的气候利基动态对于预测未来的入侵模式至关重要.
- 梅花 (Prosopis juliflora) 是一种广泛的入侵物种,具有显著的生态和经济影响.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内调查Prosopis juliflora的当前和未来气候适应性.
- 为了确定气候利基相似点 (NSS) 并评估潜在的入侵动态.
- 评估各种生态建模算法的性能,以预测物种与环境的关系.
主要方法:
- 对比了多个算法,包括MaxEnt,GLM,ANN,GBM,GAM和随机森林 (RF),用于物种环境建模.
- 利用最新的发生数据,生物气候变量和科本-盖格尔气候区.
- 根据两种代表性度途径 (RCP) 4.5和8.5的预计未来适用性,用于2050年和2070年,使用选定的全球循环模型 (GCM).
主要成果:
- 随机森林 (RF) 算法在模拟Prosopis juliflora的气候中表现出最高的准确性.
- 大约9.65%的全球面积显示出P. juliflora的高度适应性,在各大洲确定了重要的潜在入侵热点.
- 未来的预测表明适合区域 (扩张,损失,稳定) 的变化受到代表性度途径 (RCP) 的影响.
结论:
- 气候利基相似点 (NSS) 和代表性度途径 (RCP) 显著增加了特定全球地区的入侵风险.
- 该研究强调了易受Prosopis juliflora入侵的脆弱区域,需要跨境的保护战略.
- 这些发现为积极管理和控制侵袭性Prosopis juliflora扩散提供了关键的见解.
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