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沙特阿拉伯的粮食不安全和水资源管理冲击:贝叶斯式VAR分析
Raga M Elzaki1,2, Mohammed Al-Mahish1
1Department of Agribusiness and Consumer Science, College of Agriculture and Food Science, King Faisal University, Al Ahsa, Saudi Arabia.
PloS one
|January 24, 2024
概括
在沙特阿拉伯提高用水效率对于提高粮食安全至关重要. 战略性水资源管理,特别是农业和工业,可显著减少粮食不安全,与可持续发展目标保持一致.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 由于有限的耕地和水资源,沙特阿拉伯面临着日益增长的粮食需求挑战.
- 气候变化的影响,包括温度升高,降雨减少和干旱,加剧了水资源管理问题,降低了生态系统,影响了粮食安全.
- 现有的农业系统受到这些环境和资源限制的压力.
研究的目的:
- 评估水利用效率对沙特阿拉伯粮食不安全的影响.
- 分析水资源管理策略与粮食不安全多维指数 (FIMI) 之间的关系.
- 为实现与该地区粮食安全相关的可持续发展目标 (SDGs) 提供见解.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯矢量自回归 (BVAR) 模型的应用,使用2000-2020年的数据.
- 利用了脉冲响应函数 (IRF) 和预测方差误解 (FVED) 用1000次蒙特卡洛模拟.
- 检查了粮食不安全对不同部门水资源管理效率冲击的反应.
主要成果:
- 短期内,用水效率系数显著,特别是关于粮食不安全多维指数 (FIMI).
- BVAR模型表现出强大的预测能力,突出了农业用水效率和FIMI之间的相互依赖.
- 冲动响应功能证实了水效率对FIMI的重大影响;农业和工业的水效率降低了粮食不安全,而增加服务用水增加了它.
结论:
- 水利用效率是影响沙特阿拉伯粮食不安全的关键短期因素.
- 预计对水利用效率的冲击将减少粮食不安全,而粮食不安全冲击在十年内显示出自我可预测性.
- 通过战略性水资源管理提高用水效率对于加强沙特阿拉伯的粮食安全和实现可持续发展目标至关重要.
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