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美国东部的大气河流受太平洋/北美模式影响
Wenhao Dong1,2, Ming Zhao2, Zhihong Tan3
1Cooperative Programs for the Advancement of Earth System Science, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA.
Science advances
|January 24, 2024
概括
美国东部的冬季大气河流 (ARs) 正在增加. 这一趋势与太平洋/北美 (PNA) 模式有关,有助于极端天气预报.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候动力学 气候动力学
- 极端天气事件是极端天气事件.
背景情况:
- 大气河流 (ARs) 显著影响美国的天气,但它们在美国东部 (EUS) 的行为未得到充分研究.
- 之前的研究集中在美国西部的AR,为EUS留下了知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查美国东部地区AR的趋势和变化.
- 了解AR与EUS气候模式之间的联系.
主要方法:
- 对观测数据和气候模型模拟的分析.
- 统计建模以评估AR频率与气候指数之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在过去的四十年中,欧盟南部冬季AR频率显著增加 (每十年约10%).
- 在AR发生与太平洋/北美 (PNA) 远程连接模式之间存在强烈的相关性.
- 使用PNA指数预测AR频率的统计模型的有效性.
结论:
- PNA模式和喷流向极移动与EUS的AR增加有关.
- 这些发现为改善预测与AR相关的极端降雨和洪水在EUS的基础.
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