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分析城市对极端冬季降水的影响,通过对两个中国南方案例研究的观测和数值模拟
Chenxi Hu1, Chi-Yung Tam2,3, Zong-Liang Yang4
1Earth System Science Programme, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Scientific reports
|January 24, 2024
概括
城市化增加了中国大湾区 (GBA) 的极端冬季降雨量. 虽然平均强度可能会下降,但城市热岛会放大最严重的降雨事件,特别是当人为热量存在时.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 城市气象城市气象学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 城市化显著改变了当地气候模式,包括降雨量.
- 大湾区 (GBA) 是一个快速城市化的地区,容易受到极端天气事件的影响.
- 了解城市对冬季极端降雨的影响对于区域适应战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查城市化对GBA极端冬季降雨强度和频率的影响.
- 区分城市土地利用和人为热量在改变极端降水中的作用.
- 分析城市热岛 (UHI) 对冬季极端降雨事件的影响.
主要方法:
- 对2008-2017年每小时站观测结果的分析.
- 使用天气研究和预测模型与单层城市天花板模型 (WRF-SLUCM) 的数值模拟.
- 动态缩小两个极端冬季降雨情况的灵敏度实验 (Nourban,99LS,30LS,30LS-AH0).
主要成果:
- 在GBA的城市地区,冬季的每小时降雨量低于99百分比,但每小时的每年最大降雨量 (Rmax) 和99.99百分比的事件较高.
- 城市热岛 (UHI) 效应被发现可以增强城市GBA的极端降雨强度和概率.
- 在一个持久的UHI案例 (2015年),城市土地使用和人为热量放大了降水量,与抑制的UHI案例 (2013) 不同.
结论:
- 城市化对GBA的极端冬季降水产生了积极的影响,特别是通过UHI的强化.
- 在有利的气象条件下,人为热量在放大极端降雨事件方面发挥着重要作用.
- 城市对GBA极端降水的影响在冬季持久,特别是当UHI效应维持时.
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