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通过采购和供应战略,在流行病期间为卫生系统的弹性做出贡献:一种探索性的系统动态方法
Paula Götz1, Willem L Auping1, Saba Hinrichs-Krapels2
1Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management, Delft University of Technology, Jaffalaan 5, 2628 BX, Delft, The Netherlands.
在COVID-19等健康危机期间,全球供应链中断可能导致个人防护设备 (PPE) 和呼吸机短缺. 从世界市场或直接招标购买有效地减少了短缺,但运输延迟带来了风险.
科学领域:
- 卫生系统研究 卫生系统研究
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,全球卫生系统面临个人防护设备 (PPE) 和呼吸机的严重短缺.
- 供应链中断严重影响了基本医疗用品的可用性.
- 这项研究的目的是模拟供应策略,以帮助在未来的健康危机中做出决策.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个概念验证模型,模拟关键医疗设备的供应策略.
- 在不同的危机场景下评估各种供应策略的影响.
- 为决策者提供有关优化卫生系统供应链弹性方面的信息.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个系统动态模型,将疾病传播 (SEIR) 模型与医院供应可用性模型集成在一起.
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,英格兰国家卫生系统的数据为模型结构提供了信息.
- 探索性建模和分析评估了不确定性对全球采购,国内生产和储存等策略的影响.
主要成果:
- 探索性分析表明,在各种场景中,可能会出现长期的个人防护设备和呼吸机短缺.
- 在最坏的情况下,从世界市场或通过直接招标购买显示出最大的潜力来减少短缺.
- 供应战略的有效性对运输和设置延迟非常敏感.
结论:
- 系统动态和探索性建模是在危机期间识别有效的卫生系统供应链策略的宝贵工具.
- 采购和供应链决策者应制定危机框架,以加快采购并改善治理.
- 实施多样化的供应商框架,考虑储存和改进采购流程,可以提高卫生系统在流行病期间的弹性.
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