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根据洪水指数程序估计极端风的区域和现场量度
Ishfaq Ahmad1, Touqeer Ahmad2, Usman Shahzad1
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Faculty of Basic and Applied Sciences, International Islamic University, 44000, Islamabad, Pakistan.
Heliyon
|January 25, 2024
概括
极端风力事件正在增加. 这项研究分析了巴基斯坦每天的年度最大风速 (DAMWS),发现通用物流 (GLO) 分布最适合区域建模和预测未来极端风.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 极端风力事件对社会构成重大风险,并影响基础设施.
- 了解区域风险对于减少灾害风险和基础设施设计至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在巴基斯坦的Baluchistan和Sindh省进行每日年度最大风速 (DAMWS) 的区域频率分析.
- 确定最适合区域风力建模的概率分布,并预测极端风力事件.
主要方法:
- 对21个站点的DAMWS数据 (1990-2019) 应用了L时刻区域化和洪水指数程序.
- 利用集群分析来识别同质区域和异质性措施进行验证.
- 比较通用正常 (GNO),通用物流 (GLO),皮尔森3型 (P3),通用帕雷托 (GPA) 和通用极值 (GEV) 分布.
主要成果:
- 在排除一个不一致的电台后,确定了两个同质的区域.
- 通过蒙特卡洛模拟,通用后勤 (GLO) 分布表现出优于通用极值 (GEV) 的性能.
- 使用指数洪水程序,估计不同回报期的区域量量.
结论:
- 推将通用物流 (GLO) 分布用于研究区域的区域风力建模.
- 这些发现为基础设施,能源,灾害管理和气候弹性规划提供了宝贵的数据.
- 有助于改善风风相关危害的风险评估和规划,在辛德邦和巴鲁吉斯坦.
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