基于影响碳排放的因素和趋势,研究碳排放减少对策
Xinfa Tang1, Shuai Liu2, Yonghua Wang3
1School of Economic Management and Law, Jiangxi Science and Technology Normal University, Nanchang, 330013, Jiangxi, China. xinfatang@sina.com.
Environmental science and pollution research international
|January 25, 2024
概括
中国的金属炼行业可以通过有针对性的战略来减少碳排放. 这项研究确定了关键因素,并预测在15年内排放量将持续下降,这有助于该国实现双碳目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 工业生态学 工业生态学
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 人类活动导致温室气体排放,需要碳减排战略.
- 气候变化带来了重大挑战,需要向低碳经济过渡.
- 中国的金属炼行业是减排工作的关键部门.
研究的目的:
- 提出有效的对策,以减少中国金属炼行业的碳排放.
- 为中国实现其"双碳目标"做出贡献.
- 识别和排名影响该部门碳排放的因素.
主要方法:
- 使用了扩展的STIRPAT (人口,富裕和技术回归的随机影响) 模型.
- 在分析中使用了PSO-BP (粒子集群优化-反向传播) 预测模型.
- 在低碳,标准和高碳场景中分析数据.
主要成果:
- 确定了影响碳排放的关键因素:人口,煤炭消耗,城市化速度,金属总产量,碳强度,二级产业比例和人均GDP.
- 预计未来15年,中国金属炼行业的碳排放量将持续下降.
- 根据敏感度的下降顺序对影响因素进行排名.
结论:
- 这项研究提供了一种创新的方法来减少中国金属炼行业的碳排放.
- 这些发现增强了对金属炼行业碳排放的现有研究.
- 建议的对策支持向低碳模式的过渡.
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