开发一种多变量预测模型,用于在标准世卫组织多药疗法下,在患有麻风的人群中预测达普的不良药物事件
Ana Carolina Galvão Dos Santos de Araujo1, Mariana de Andrea Vilas-Boas Hacker2, Roberta Olmo Pinheiro2
1Evandro Chagas National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation (INI/Fiocruz), Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil.
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
|January 25, 2024
概括
女性性别,多细菌性麻风症分类和高等教育预测了麻风患者的松药物不良反应 (ADEs). 该模型有助于预测和管理WHO/MDT治疗期间的ADE.
科学领域:
- 药物监督 药物监督 药物监督
- 临床流行病学 临床流行病学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
背景情况:
- 达普森 (DDS) 的不良药物事件 (ADEs) 复杂化了麻风治疗.
- 确定DDS-ADEs的风险因素对于成功完成世界卫生组织推的多药疗法 (WHO/MDT) 是至关重要的.
- 已知的DDS-ADEs包括溶血性贫血,甲血球血,肝毒性,细胞瘤和过敏反应.
研究的目的:
- 为在接受标准WHO/MDT治疗的麻风患者中开发DDS-ADEs的预测模型.
- 确定与DDS-ADEs相关的关键风险因素,导致治疗中止.
主要方法:
- 一项病例控制研究审查了329名成人麻风患者的医疗记录,这些患者接受了世卫组织/MDT (2000-2021) 治疗.
- 用多变量逻辑回归 (LRM) 来开发一个预测名ogram.
- 使用Hosmer-Lemeshow测试来评估模型的合适性,并根据接收器操作特征曲线 (AUC) 下的面积来评估预测能力.
主要成果:
- 女性性别 (OR=3.61),多细菌性麻风的分类 (OR=2.5) 和高等教育 (OR=1.97) 是导致WHO/MDT停止治疗的DDS-ADEs的显著预测因素.
- 开发的预测模型显示AUC为0.7208,表明DDS-ADEs的预测能力为72%.
结论:
- 提出了一种临床预测模型,以帮助医生预测DDS-ADEs.
- 这种工具可以帮助接受达普森治疗的麻风患者进行主动管理和治疗计划.
- 早期识别患有ADE风险的患者可以改善治疗坚持和治疗结果.
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