裂谷热病毒在打破地理障碍的过程中不断增加的演变,流行和疫情
Zekun Wang1, Shaojun Pei1, Runze Ye2
1School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 25, 2024
概括
裂谷热 (RVF) 病毒正在全球蔓延,突破地理障碍后,突变率和人类患病率增加. 全球"一健康"合作对于预防潜在的流行病至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医病毒学 兽医病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 分子进化分子进化
背景情况:
- 裂谷热 (RVF) 是世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的优先疾病之一.
- 了解RVF病毒的全球分布和进化动态至关重要.
- 这项研究调查了地理障碍破坏对RVF病毒进化和传播的影响.
研究的目的:
- 为了描述裂谷热病毒的全球景观分布.
- 分析RVF病毒在跨越地理障碍时的进化动态,流行和爆发模式.
- 评估地理扩张对RVF病毒遗传多样性和疾病发病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 系统的文献审查和元分析以估计宿主间的RVF患病率.
- 随机效应建模用于流行率估计.
- 以分子时钟为基础对NCBI来源的核酸序列进行基因分析,以确定病毒替代率.
- 在地理障碍突破之前和之后,对流行率,替代率和疫情的比较分析.
主要成果:
- 在48个国家的26个宿主中检测到RVF病毒 (1930-2022).
- 2000年后,核酸替代率显著增加,病毒在非洲蔓延.
- 在突破撒哈拉沙漠壁垒后,人类患病率从1.92%上升到3.03% (1977年后) 和5.24% (2000年后).
- 观察到人类疫情和野生动物宿主数量的增加趋势.
- 蝙蝠和人类之间的潜在溢出加速病毒替代率.
- 疫情与之前的洪水/大雨有很强的相关性 (60%).
结论:
- 裂谷热病带来了日益增加的流行病风险.
- 在全球合作的框架下,全球合作.
- 一个健康,一个健康.
- 这一框架对于预防流行病至关重要.
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