使用高斯过程回归模型对微电网操作的建模预测错误.
1Department of Electrical Engineering, Myongji University, Yongin, 17058, Republic of Korea.
Scientific reports
|January 25, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种用于模拟微电网中净负载预测错误的新方法. 它使用高斯过程回归来更好地预测可再生能源的不确定性.
科学领域:
- 电气工程 电气工程
- 电力系统 电力系统
- 整合可再生能源的整合
背景情况:
- 微电网对于集成太阳能和风能等可再生能源至关重要.
- 可再生能源的固有变化需要有效的不确定性管理策略.
- 准确评估不确定性因素对于成本效益高的微电网运行至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种方法来建模微电网中净负载预测错误的概率分布.
- 为了解释各种不确定性因素之间的时间相互依赖.
- 为了提高净负载误差分布估计的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用高斯过程回归来实现数据驱动的方法.
- 将各种不确定性因素转化为正常分布,同时保持边际特征.
- 在不确定性因素之间建模条件概率分布.
主要成果:
- 提出的方法有效地模拟了净负载预测误差分布.
- 条件概率密度函数被训练和验证.
- 这种方法提高了密度函数对于净负载误差近似值的适用性.
结论:
- 开发的方法提供了一种优越的方法,用于近似微电网的净负载误差分布.
- 这提高了微电网运营的可靠性和效率,并具有高可再生能源透率.
- 该技术为管理电力系统中复杂的不确定性提供了一个强大的框架.
相关概念视频
Random Error
885
Random or indeterminate errors originate from various uncontrollable variables, such as variations in environmental conditions, instrument imperfections, or the inherent variability of the phenomena being measured. Usually, these errors cannot be predicted, estimated, or characterized because their direction and magnitude often vary in magnitude and direction even during consecutive measurements. As a result, they are difficult to eliminate. However, the aggregate effect of these errors can be...
885
Maxwell-Boltzmann Distribution: Problem Solving
1.5K
Individual molecules in a gas move in random directions, but a gas containing numerous molecules has a predictable distribution of molecular speeds, which is known as the Maxwell-Boltzmann distribution, f(v).
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
This distribution function f(v) is defined by saying that the expected number N (v1,v2) of particles with speeds between v1 and v2 is given by
1.5K
Propagation of Uncertainty from Systematic Error
519
The atomic mass of an element varies due to the relative ratio of its isotopes. A sample's relative proportion of oxygen isotopes influences its average atomic mass. For instance, if we were to measure the atomic mass of oxygen from a sample, the mass would be a weighted average of the isotopic masses of oxygen in that sample. Since a single sample is not likely to perfectly reflect the true atomic mass of oxygen for all the molecules of oxygen on Earth, the mass we obtain from this...
519
Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
687
An experiment often consists of more than a single step. In this case, measurements at each step give rise to uncertainty. Because the measurements occur in successive steps, the uncertainty in one step necessarily contributes to that in the subsequent step. As we perform statistical analysis on these types of experiments, we must learn to account for the propagation of uncertainty from one step to the next. The propagation of uncertainty depends on the type of arithmetic operation performed on...
687
Prediction Intervals
2.3K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.3K
Gauss's Law: Problem-Solving
1.7K
Gauss's law helps determine electric fields even though the law is not directly about electric fields but electric flux. In situations with certain symmetries (spherical, cylindrical, or planar) in the charge distribution, the electric field can be deduced based on the knowledge of the electric flux. In these systems, we can find a Gaussian surface S over which the electric field has a constant magnitude. Furthermore, suppose the electric field is parallel (or antiparallel) to the area...
1.7K


