由于气候变化,地球将失去多少物种?
John J Wiens1, Joseph Zelinka1
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona, USA.
Global change biology
|January 26, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁着全球生物多样性,可能导致50年内14%-32%的物种灭绝. 本研究回顾了物种分布模型 (SDM) 和气候利基变化,以改善灭绝估计.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性科学 生物多样性科学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁,对物种灭绝的估计差异很大.
- 以前使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 的研究已经产生了相互矛盾的灭绝率预测,从1%到70%不等.
研究的目的:
- 审查和评估当前灭绝估计中的方法和分歧.
- 探索实现更准确的全球灭绝预测的方法.
- 提供与气候有关的物种损失的最新估计.
主要方法:
- 审查现有的物种分布模型 (SDM) 研究.
- 对近期气候变化反应和物种气候位转移的分析.
- 集成特定群体的灭绝估计与物种丰富性预测.
主要成果:
- 对最近的SDM研究进行的一项审查表明,在最坏的情况下,物种损失约为17%,但确定了可能低估灭绝的偏见.
- 分析显示,物种的气候经常随着时间的推移而变化,这违反了许多SDM研究的关键假设.
- 初步估计预测,在50年内,宏观物种将在14%至32%的范围内灭绝,这可能会影响数百万种动物和植物物种.
结论:
- 目前用于估计气候驱动灭绝的方法可能低估了真正的影响,因为方法上的限制和假设.
- 种类的适应能力和利基动态是需要纳入的关键因素,以准确预测灭绝.
- 迫切需要采取行动来缓解气候变化和保护全球生物多样性,防止不断升级的灭绝风险.
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