叶子衰老的过程导向模型偏向于平均值:对模型性能和未来预测的影响
Michael Meier1,2, Harald Bugmann1, Christof Bigler1
1Forest Ecology, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Global change biology
|January 26, 2024
概括
叶子衰老模型显示了对平均值的偏差,扭曲了未来气候变化影响的预测. 纠正这种偏差揭示了叶子衰老时间的明显更大变化,突出了当前生物圈模型中的不确定性.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 叶子衰老时间在落叶树中对于碳吸收和资源分配至关重要.
- 准确的叶子衰老模型对于模拟生物圈-大气相互作用和气候变化缓解潜力至关重要.
- 当前的模型可能会对平均值 (BTM) 产生偏差,可能导致不准确的表现和扭曲的未来预测.
研究的目的:
- 调查偏向平均值 (BTM) 对以过程为导向的叶子衰老模型性能的影响.
- 分析BTM如何影响未来叶子衰老时间变化的预测.
- 量化BTM对模型比较和全球变化下的未来生物圈行为的影响.
主要方法:
- 通过21个以过程为导向的模型模拟的1700多万个过去的叶子衰老日期和4900万个未来的转移的分析.
- 模型使用来自中欧的45,000多个观测结果对欧洲三大树种进行了校准.
- 评估模型性能和预计的未来变化,有或没有BTM的纠正.
主要成果:
- 所有21款车型都展示了BTM,具有显著的模型特定变化.
- 模型通常只比预测平均衰老时间的零模型稍好一点.
- 标准性能指标偏好了具有更强的BTM模型,而较弱的BTM模型则预测了未来更大的转变.
- 对BTM进行校正表明,与1990-1999相比,2090-2099年未来的叶子衰老转移平均增加了13-14天.
结论:
- 对平均值的偏见对最先进的叶子衰老模型产生了重大影响,破坏了比较并扭曲了未来的预测.
- 较强的BTM导致低估了叶子衰老时间的未来变化.
- 这些发现强调了当前叶子衰老预测中的相当大的不确定性,并表明全球变化下的生物圈行为可能是不准确的建模.
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