全球由于气候变化而减少的农业人工劳动能力
Gerald C Nelson1, Jennifer Vanos2, George Havenith3
1University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, USA.
Global change biology
|January 26, 2024
概括
气候变化显著降低了农业的体力劳动能力,特别是在亚洲和非洲. 诸如阴影,夜间工作和机械化等适应对未来的粮食生产和工人安全至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化影响研究 气候变化影响研究
背景情况:
- 手工户外劳动对全球农业至关重要.
- 由于气候变化导致全球气温上升,农业工人面临着严重的热应激风险.
- 身体劳动能力 (PWC) 指标量化了热应激下的工作能力.
研究的目的:
- 评估预计气候变化对农业工人的体力劳动能力 (PWC) 的影响.
- 评估潜在的适应策略,以减轻农业环境中的热应激.
主要方法:
- 计算PWC使用五个地球系统模型在三个发射场景 (SSP1-2.6,SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 三个时间段 (最近过去,中世纪,世纪末).
- 年度,生长季节和最温暖的90天期间的PWC总值.
- 评估了适应策略,包括阴影,夜间工作和增加机械化.
主要成果:
- 在最近的过去条件下,PWC在生长季节全球一半的农田中低于86%.
- 未来气候情景 (世纪末/SSP5-8.5) 预计全球PWC减少为0.7,严重影响亚洲,非洲和南美洲的地区.
- 平均生长季节PWC可能会在关键的粮食生产区如印度河平原下降到0.4以下.
- 像阴影和夜间工作这样的适应可以将PWC提高0.05-0.10,而增加的机械化需要显著的全球马力增加.
结论:
- 由于热应激,气候变化对农业劳动生产率和工人健康构成严重威胁.
- 在减少PWC方面存在显著的区域差异,南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲是非常脆弱的.
- 适应战略,包括技术和管理转变,对于确保可持续农业和保护工人至关重要.
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