孟加拉国孕产妇死亡率的预测
Etsuko Nishimura1, Daisuke Yoneoka2,3, Md Obaidur Rahman2,4
1Graduate School of Nursing Science, St. Luke's International University, Tokyo, Japan.
Journal of global health
|January 26, 2024
概括
如果机构分娩率每年增加4%,孟加拉国可以在2026年之前实现可持续发展目标目标3.1的孕产妇死亡率 (MMR). 改善服务不足地区的分娩率和提高医疗保健质量对于减少MMR至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 卫生政策 卫生政策
背景情况:
- 该研究探讨了孟加拉国在实现可持续发展目标方面取得的进展.
- 这一目标旨在将孕产妇死亡率 (MMR) 降至每10万活产婴儿70以下.
研究的目的:
- 预测孟加拉国实现可持续发展目标的时间表 3.1.
- 评估各种降低孕产妇死亡率 (MMR) 的情景.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自1993-2017年孟加拉国人口和健康调查的二次数据.
- 采用了一种自回归移动平均模型,用于MMR预测到2060年的外源变量 (ARMAX).
- 模拟了基于机构交付率和参考预测的四个场景.
主要成果:
- 第1场景,假设机构交付年增长4%,预计到2026年实现MMR目标.
- 第二种情景,与国家目标保持一致,预计到2029年实现目标.
- 情景3和4显示减少速度较慢,到2060年MMR不会下降到70以下.
结论:
- 提高机构交付率,特别是在低利率地区,对于实现MMR目标至关重要.
- 提高卫生机构医疗护理质量对于减少MMR至关重要.
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