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洪水风险和预防选择:研究人类行为的框架
Alessandro Sapienza1, Rino Falcone1
1Institute of Cognitive Sciences and Technologies, National Research Council of Italy (ISTC-CNR), 00185 Rome, Italy.
Behavioral sciences (Basel, Switzerland)
|January 26, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一个基于代理的平台来分析人类行为和社会结构如何影响对洪水风险的反应. 它强调了"评估与行动之间的矛盾",以及社交网络作为风险吸收器的潜力.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 社会科学 社会科学 社会科学
- 计算机科学 计算机科学
背景情况:
- 洪水现象带来了重大的经济,社会和危及生命的风险,气候变化加剧了这种风险.
- 了解人类因素对于有效应对水文地质危险至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估人类因素在应对关键水文地质现象中的作用.
- 介绍一个基于代理的平台,用于分析在关键事件期间的社会行为.
主要方法:
- 开发一个基于代理的平台,模拟面临灾难性洪水风险的人口.
- 模拟公民作为认知代理人,根据信息来源和相互信任评估风险.
- 分析公民和当局的行为概况.
主要成果:
- 确定"评估与行动之间的矛盾"效应,即在高风险事件期间,个人可能违背可信信息而采取行动.
- 证明社会结构作为"社会风险吸收器"的能力,可能增加风险容忍度.
- 在关键的水文地质场景中模拟公民和当局的行为概况.
结论:
- 基于代理的建模为洪水事件期间的复杂社会动态提供了洞察力.
- 这些发现可以为制定应对灾害和风险管理的一般指导方针提供信息.
- 社会结构可以在减轻水文地质风险影响方面发挥重要作用.
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