在气候变化场景下预测Haloxylon ammodendron的潜在分布,使用最大值模型的机器学习
Fengjin Xiao1, Qiufeng Liu1, Yun Qin1
1National Climate Center, Chinese Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China.
Biology
|January 26, 2024
概括
全球变暖对Haloxylon ammodendron的分布产生影响. 降水是关键,适合息地在未来的气候情景下扩大,有助于沙漠生态系统的稳定.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 哈洛西隆 (Haloxylon ammodendron) 是一个受保护的植物,对中国沙漠生态系统的稳定至关重要.
- 全球气候变化显著影响H. ammodendron的生长条件和分布.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定影响H. ammodendron分布的关键气候变量.
- 根据各种共享社会经济路径 (SSP),预测适合息地的未来变化.
主要方法:
- 利用马克森特模型来评估当前的气候适应性.
- 根据不同的SSP场景,预计未来的分配变化.
主要成果:
- 在最温暖的季度和最潮湿的月份的降雨量是最有影响力的变量.
- 目前非常适合的息地面积约为489,800平方公里.
- 未来的预测表明,所有SSP都将扩大高度适合息地的数量 (到2070年代将增加40%至80%).
结论:
- 预计在未来的气候变化下,haloxylon ammodendron的息地将会扩大.
- 这种植物在不断扩大的荒漠化中,在维持沙漠生态系统稳定性方面发挥着至关重要的作用.
- 调查结果为生物多样性保护和生态保护战略提供了洞察力.
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