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寻求中国体育彩票发展道路,在2035年实现共同繁荣
Yaping Yao1, Bin Wan1, Bo Long1
1College of Physical Education, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, P.R. China.
PloS one
|January 26, 2024
概括
中国体育彩票销售额预计将从2032年开始下降,原因是人口结构的变化,但国际足联效应可能会提供支持. 政策制定者可以利用这一点来实现2035年愿景的目标.
科学领域:
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 体育管理体育管理
- 公共政策 公共政策
背景情况:
- 中国体育彩票资助体育发展和福利计划.
- 持续增长对于与中国2035年愿景目标保持一致至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为中国体育彩票开发一个宏观预测模型.
- 预测销售轨迹,并为到2035年实现持续增长的政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 分布回归分析应用于中国体育彩票销售数据 (2011-2022年).
- 宏观经济和特定事件因素被用作解释变量.
- 马分布为销售数据提供了最合适的结果.
主要成果:
- 城市化,人口动态和FIFA效应在2011-2019年间显著影响了销售 (p <0.05).
- 在2011-2022年期间",冲击"因素显著影响了销售 (p < 0.001).
- 由于人口负增长,预计销售额将从2032年开始下降,尽管FIFA效应可能会减轻这一点.
结论:
- 该预测模型提供了2035年之前中国体育彩票销售的洞察力.
- 人口负增长带来不利因素,而城市化和FIFA效应是关键驱动因素.
- 政策建议包括将市场发展与大众体育和人口老龄化联系起来,以实现共同的繁荣.
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