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历史和未来的最大海面温度
B B Cael1, Friedrich A Burger2,3, Stephanie A Henson1
1National Oceanography Centre, Southampton, UK.
Science advances
|January 26, 2024
概括
海洋热浪正在增加. 这项研究使用卫星数据验证了地球系统模型,证实了它们在预测未来海洋热浪和海洋变暖趋势方面的可靠性.
科学领域:
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
背景情况:
- 海洋热浪 (MHWs) 显著影响海洋生态系统.
- 预计MHW的频率和强度将增加.
- 地球系统模型在模拟 MHW 的准确性是不确定的.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估地球系统模型能够复制观测到的极端海面温度 (SST) 统计数据的能力.
- 通过与卫星观测对模型性能进行验证,建立对未来MHW预测的信心.
- 量化海洋最大温度的预测变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了39年全球卫星观测每日平均SST异常的39年.
- 应用了通用的极端值分布来分析每年最大的SST异常.
- 将观察到的SST极值分布与14个合模型对比项目第6阶段 (CMIP6) 模型的历史模拟进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 观察到的SST异常很好地与一般化极端值分布保持一致.
- CMIP6模型成功地重现了SST极端的观察到的分布和空间模式.
- 预计最大海洋温度的增加为1.07° ± 0.17°C (2°C升温) 和2.04° ± 0.18°C (3.2°C升温).
结论:
- 该研究验证了CMIP6模型用于预测MHWs的可靠性.
- 海洋最大温度的上升主要是由上升的平均SST驱动的,SST季节性变化的贡献很小.
- 这项研究提供了对海洋温度极端的关键定量见解,并增强了对MHWs气候模型预测的信心.
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