一种可解释的机器学习方法用于医院急诊室访问预测,使用持续培训和多模型回归
C Peláez-Rodríguez1, R Torres-López1, J Pérez-Aracil1
1Department of Signal Processing and Communications, Universidad de Alcalá, Alcalá de Henares, 28805, Spain.
Computer methods and programs in biomedicine
|January 26, 2024
概括
准确预测医院急诊室 (ED) 访问对于运营效率至关重要. 本研究提出了两种可解释的机器学习方法来预测ED访问,改进了现有的方法.
科学领域:
- 医疗保健 运营 研究 研究 研究
- 应用机器学习应用机器学习
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 自20世纪90年代末以来,紧急部门 (ED) 的访问量稳步增加,这一趋势在COVID-19大流行中得到了显著扩大.
- 准确预测ED访问对于提高医院运营效率,患者护理质量和结果至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和评估两种新的,可解释的机器学习 (ML) 方法,用于准确预测医院急诊室 (ED) 访问.
- 提高ED访问量短期和长期预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 提出了基于ML的两个不同的预测策略:基于值的数据细分方法和基于集群的集体学习方法.
- 通过使用两个西班牙医院的现实世界ED访问数据来评估方法.
主要成果:
- 两种拟议的方法都显示了对短期和长期 (长达一周) 的ED访问准确预测能力.
- 这些新的方法在预测准确性和效率方面超过了替代预测技术.
结论:
- 开发的预测模型提供了强大的解释性,识别了影响ED访问预测的关键变量.
- 可解释的ML方法为医院资源管理和战略规划提供了宝贵的见解.
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