气候变化提高了小麦开花日期的稳定性
Yong He1, Wei Xiong2, Pengcheng Hu3
1Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing 100081, PR China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 26, 2024
概括
到2050年,气候变化将使冬季小麦的开花日期提前14天. 特定的基因组合,如Ppd-D1a与携带vrn-D1的冬季基因型,增强小麦育种者的开花日期稳定性.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 植物遗传学 植物遗传学
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
背景情况:
- 冬季小麦的开花日期稳定性对于稳定的作物产量至关重要.
- 气候变化给小麦的开花时间和作物表现带来了不确定性.
- 确定稳定的小麦基因型对于未来的农业规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对冬季小麦开花日期的影响.
- 预测未来气候情景对开花日期稳定性的影响.
- 为了确定中国北方冬季小麦地区的稳定小麦基因型.
主要方法:
- 一个基于多个位置的基因型 (基于MLG) 的模型被开发来模拟小麦的开花日期.
- 基于MLG的模型使用来自中国北方冬季小麦地区 (NCWWR) 的观测数据进行校准和验证.
- 根据代表性度路径 (RCP4.5和RCP8.5) 预测了开花日期,以评估未来气候条件下的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 基于MLG的模型准确地模拟了开花日期 (RMSE为2.3天),解释了88.5%的基因型变异.
- 根据RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景,预计到2050年小麦的开花日期将提前11-14天.
- 由于较早的开花趋势,预计在未来的气候情景下,开花日期稳定性将增加.
结论:
- Vrn和Ppd基因的联合作用对于小麦的开花日期稳定性至关重要.
- 与携带vrn-D1等位基因组的冬季基因型相结合的Ppd-D1a等位基因组显著提高了开花日期的稳定性.
- 这些发现为在不断变化的气候条件下小麦育种和生产战略提供了宝贵的指导.
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