在中国各地的热浪和老年人口暴露的时空变化
Yun Zhou1, Songwei Gu2, Hong Yang3
1Chongqing Jinfo Mountain National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station for Karst Ecosystem, School of Geographical Sciences, Southwest University, Chongqing 400715, China; New Liberal Arts Laboratory for Sustainable Development of Rural Western China, Chongqing 400715, China; Key Laboratory of Monitoring, Evaluation and Early Warning of Territorial Spatial Planning Implementation, Ministry of Natural Resources, 401147, China.
The Science of the total environment
|January 26, 2024
概括
气候变化加剧了中国的热浪,大大增加了它们的频率和持续时间,特别影响了老年人群. 需要紧急干预,以应对这些日益增长的健康风险.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在加剧全球热浪,给健康带来重大风险,尤其是老年人.
- 在中国,有限的研究已经使用热量指数来分析热浪趋势及其对老年人的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估从1964年到2022年中国各地热浪的长期时空变化.
- 评估这些热浪对老年人口的影响.
- 为了比较三个不同的热浪定义.
主要方法:
- 在谷歌地球引擎 (GEE) 平台上利用高分辨率的再分析温度数据.
- 使用过度热系数 (EHF) 计算热浪.
- 分析了时空趋势和人口暴露数据.
主要成果:
- 热浪的频率和持续时间在中国77%的地区显著增加,而中国南部受到影响最大.
- 没有观察到最大和平均热浪强度的显著趋势.
- 老年人接触热浪的数量从2001年的1196万增加到2020年的3031万以上,每年又增加了112万老年人接触热浪.
- 人口因素 (42.84%) 对热浪暴露的影响最大,其次是气候 (34.85%) 和综合因素 (22.31%).
- 在海拔和土地使用类型之间注意到暴露的地理差异,主要在中国东北部,西南部和南部.
结论:
- 热浪趋势在中国大部分地区的频率和持续时间都在增加,对老年人群构成越来越大的威胁.
- 人口增长是老年人暴露于热浪的主要驱动因素.
- 战略干预对于减轻与日益升级的热浪相关的健康风险至关重要,特别是在中国的弱势老年人群中.
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