环境法规是否会影响分析师的预测偏差? 来自中国低碳试点政策的证据
Yuying Sun1, Kai Wu2, Sihui Liu2
1Academy of Mathematics and Systems Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; Center for Forecasting Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China; School of Economics and Management, and MOE Social Science Laboratory of Digital Economic Forecasts and Policy Simulation, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, China.
Journal of environmental management
|January 28, 2024
概括
中国的低碳试点政策通过减少错误和差异改善了分析师的预测. 强制性可持续性披露提高了透明度和资本市场效率,特别是对于国有企业.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 金融市场 金融市场
- 公司治理 公司治理
背景情况:
- 全球越来越重视减缓气候变化和可持续发展.
- 环境法规在影响企业行为和信息披露方面的作用.
- 对特定绿色政策对金融市场参与者的影响的理解有限.
研究的目的:
- 调查中国低碳试点政策对金融分析师预测准确性的因果关系.
- 检查政策下的强制性可持续性披露是否提高了分析师预测的质量.
- 确定特定于企业和特定于城市的特征,以缓解政策的影响.
主要方法:
- 采用分阶差异 (DiD) 研究设计.
- 利用公司级和城市级数据来分析分析师预测错误和差异的变化.
- 进行了额外的测试,以探索会计信息质量和投资者关注的中介作用.
主要成果:
- 低碳试点政策显著减少了分析师预测错误和预测差异.
- 这种积极影响在国有企业和以制造业为中心的城市更为明显.
- 有证据表明,提高会计信息质量和增加投资者的注意力作为关键传输道.
结论:
- 中国的环境法规,即低碳试点政策,提高了资本市场的透明度和效率.
- 强制性可持续性披露对于提高财务分析质量至关重要.
- 调查结果为政策制定者和投资者提供了宝贵的见解,以导航气候变化减缓战略.
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