预测口腔癌患者的生存率:基于中国SEER数据库和外部验证的研究
Yongmei Tan1,2, Guoxing Huang1,2, Jintao Hu2,3
1Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery, Department of General Dentistry, Sun Yat-sen Memorial Hospital, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, P. R. China.
Cancer medicine
|January 29, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了准确的诺基图来预测口腔粘膜癌 (BMC) 患者的整体存活率 (OS) 和癌症特异性存活率 (CSS). 这些工具为改善患者结果提供了显著的临床益处.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 癌症研究 癌症研究
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 口腔粘膜癌 (BMC) 是一种普遍存在的口腔恶性瘤,预后通常不佳.
- 准确的生存预测对于有效的患者管理和治疗规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在BMC患者中开发和验证1年,3年和5年的整体存活率 (OS) 和癌症特异性存活率 (CSS) 的预测性名录.
- 评估这些名录的临床实用性和准确性,以预测患者的结果.
主要方法:
- 利用监测流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2004-2019) 的数据进行初步开发和验证.
- 采用单变量和多变量考克斯回归分析来确定独立的预后预测因素.
- 使用来自孙中山纪念医院 (SYSMH) 的数据进行了外部验证.
主要成果:
- 开发了两种用于OS和CSS预测的诺姆图,实现了高C指数 (例如,培训OS的0.767,培训CSS的0.801,SYSMH OS的0.849,SYSMH CSS的0.916).
- 诺米图表通过ROC曲线,校准曲线和DCA显示出出色的预测准确性和临床意义.
- 外部验证证实了名图的高精度和临床益处,优于TNM分期系统.
结论:
- 开发的诺米图准确地预测BMC患者的短期和长期OS和CSS.
- 预计在临床实践中实施这些名ograms将通过帮助个性化治疗策略,显著有利于BMC患者.
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