一个模拟农业系统对气候变化的脆弱性的框架,反映了伊朗里海沿海农业生态区的反映
Asiye Akbari1, Amir Sadoddin2, Hamidreza Asgari3
1Department of Watershed Management, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|January 29, 2024
概括
气候变化增加了伊朗戈尔根鲁德河流域农业系统的脆弱性. 适应计划和作物多样化对于缓解未来的水资源短缺和防止脆弱性增加至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候变化影响需要评估部门的脆弱性,以制定有效的适应战略.
- 河流流域规模的评估对于理解局部气候变化影响至关重要.
- 位于伊朗里海沿岸平原的戈尔根鲁德河流域是面临气候变化挑战的关键农业地区.
研究的目的:
- 评估农业系统在戈尔根鲁德河流域对气候变化的脆弱性.
- 确定高度脆弱的流域,并为适应规划提供信息.
- 评估不同气候变化和适应情景对农业脆弱性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用一个框架来建模农业系统对气候变化的脆弱性.
- 在农业环境和社会经济方面量化了12个指标,考虑了暴露,易感性和弹性.
- 采用SSM-iCrop2模型来模拟当前和未来气候场景下的作物产量.
主要成果:
- 在当前条件下,Gorganrud河流域流域的脆弱性水平各不相同.
- 预计气候变化场景将增加整体农业系统的脆弱性.
- 在气候变化情景下,Madarsu和Tilabad流域的脆弱性特别高 (0.63和0.61分别).
结论:
- 增加农业系统的脆弱性需要适应计划,特别是减轻水资源短缺.
- 即使在目前,大多数流域也表现出中度的脆弱性,强调需要采取主动措施.
- 建议促进作物和生计多样化,以防止农业脆弱性升级.
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