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需要在亚洲和大洋洲为mopox采取预防性控制策略

Gregory Gan¹, A Janhavi¹, Guan Tong¹

¹Saw Swee Hock School of Public Health, National University of Singapore, Singapore.

Infectious Disease Modelling

|January 31, 2024

概括

对与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 进行预防性疫苗接种可以显著减少亚洲和大洋洲的mpox疫情. 接种疫苗可以将感染率从近90%降至3.1%的水平,并延迟流行病峰值.

科学领域:

流行病学流行病学
公共卫生公共卫生
传染病建模传染病建模

背景情况:

最近的mopox疫情揭示了对新型性传播感染 (STIs) 的反应存在差距,特别是在亚洲和大洋洲.
亚洲和大洋洲被确定为易受感染的地区,需要强大的基础设施来快速应对性传播感染爆发.

研究的目的:

模拟亚洲和大洋洲的mopox疫情.
为与男性发生性关系的男性 (MSM) 社区提出预防性疫苗接种策略.
评估疫苗在预防或抑制mopox疫情的有效性.

主要方法:

利用数据驱动的,异构的性接触网络来模拟新加坡,香港和悉尼的mopox疫情.
采用基于个人的SEIR分区模型来模拟流行病轨迹.
评估了不同接种疫苗对疫情抑制的影响.

主要成果:

模拟显示,在密集的网络 (新加坡,悉尼) 中出现了快速爆发,感染分别在41日和23日达到峰值,而香港则在77日.
如果没有接种疫苗,68.2%-89.7%的MSM人口可能会在一年内被感染.
疫苗接种策略将感染率降低至3.1% (范围:3.1%-82.2%) 并将香港的流行病峰值推迟了36-50天,或完全防止了疫情爆发.

结论:

极其密集且连接良好的性网络 (65.2%-83.2%与超级传播者相连) 需要紧急干预.
强烈建议在首例病例确诊后进行预防性或立即接种疫苗.
接种疫苗对于管理mopox疫情和预防医疗保健系统压力至关重要.

关键词:

联系矩阵是一个接触矩阵.建模模型建模模型麻疹病毒的病毒.蒙波克斯 (Mox Mpox) 是一个网络模型网络模型发生性接触的性行为.

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