载体传播疾病模型采用拉格朗的方法
Daozhou Gao1,2, Linlin Cao3
1Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Cleveland State University, Cleveland, 44115, OH, USA. d.gao51@csuohio.edu.
Journal of mathematical biology
|January 31, 2024
概括
人口分散显著影响载体传播疾病的传播. 我们的模型表明,异构的混合和宿主细分可以增加疾病传播,影响控制策略.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 媒介性疾病给公共卫生带来了重大挑战.
- 了解空间扩散动态对于有效控制至关重要.
- 人口分散影响异质环境中的疾病传播模式.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个多组,多补丁模型,分析人口分散对载体传播疾病传播的影响.
- 定义和利用基本的繁殖数 (R0) 和疾病动态的网络连接.
- 调查R0的边界,并比较建模方法.
主要方法:
- 拉格朗的方法模型主机和载体运动,保持个体的身份.
- 使用居住次矩阵对主机-向量网络连接的描述.
- 基于R0.0的无疾病平衡的全球稳定性的分析.
主要成果:
- 基本的繁殖数 (R0) 决定了疾病的全球动态.
- 在同质环境中异质混合会增加R0.0.
- 拉格朗奇和欧勒模型在R0上限上显示了实质性的差异.
- 增加宿主细分可以导致更大的R0.
结论:
- 人口分散和环境异质性是载体传播疾病传播的关键因素.
- 该模型为R0提供了生物学上有意义的边界,有助于疾病管理.
- 数字模拟突出了宿主运动和控制策略对疾病传播的影响.
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