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使用随机森林建模评估野火对Trigonella elliptica息地的影响
Ehsan Moradi1, Ali Tavili2, Hamid Darabi3
1Department of Reclamation of Arid and Mountainous Regions, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran; Institute of Landscape Engineering, Faculty of Horticulture and Landscape Engineering, Slovak University of Agriculture, Nitra, Slovakia.
Journal of environmental management
|January 31, 2024
概括
野火对伊朗的Trigonella elliptica息地构成严重威胁. 有效的消防管理对于保护这种有价值的草药和防止生态系统退化至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 全球范围内,野火严重破坏干旱和半干旱的牧场.
- 三角 (Trigonella elliptica) 是一种有价值的草本物种,息地位于伊朗中部牧场.
研究的目的:
- 评估野火对Trigonella elliptica息地的影响.
- 为了预测T.圆形息地和火灾危险使用社会环境变量在雅兹德省,伊朗.
主要方法:
- 采用随机森林 (RF) 算法用于息地和火灾危险预测.
- 使用IncNodePurity指数和概率曲线 (PC) 来确定变量影响.
- 使用曲线下的面积 (AUC) 和真实技能统计 (TSS) 验证模型性能.
主要成果:
- 射频模型表现出高性能 (AUC:息地为0.90,野火为0.92;TSS:息地为0.81,野火为0.82).
- 高度,斜率和降水影响T. elliptica的分布;距离道路,人口密度和风速影响野火的发生.
- 在T. elliptica息地的很大一部分 (约. 2311.38公里2) 面临着高火灾危险,这表明存在严重的保护问题.
结论:
- 紧急实施消防管理战略和保护项目是必要的.
- 持续监测对于保护T. elliptica息地至关重要.
- 忽视高风险地区可能会导致T.圆体种群减少和不良的二次继承.
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