有效样本大小:衡量预测中的个人不确定性
Doranne Thomassen1, Saskia le Cessie1,2, Hans C van Houwelingen1
1Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, The Netherlands.
Statistics in medicine
|January 31, 2024
概括
我们开发了一种有效的样本大小测量方法,用于量化临床预测模型中的不确定性. 这有助于了解有多少类似的患者为预测提供了信息,改善了模型的解释和通信.
科学领域:
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 临床流行病学临床流行病学
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 临床预测模型使用有限的样本,导致预测不确定性.
- 患者个人资料在模型开发中没有统一的表现,导致变量不确定性.
- 现有的方法缺乏对个体预测不确定性的直观测量.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种对个体预测不确定性的直观测量.
- 引入有效样本大小的概念,以量化预测不确定性.
- 评估有效样本大小在模型开发,验证和临床应用中的有用性.
主要方法:
- 在通用线性模型中获得有效样本大小的分析表达式.
- 将预测方差等同于假设患者样本平均结果的方差.
- 将有效样本大小解释为类似患者的数量,以告知预测.
主要成果:
- 开发了有效样本大小的分析公式.
- 用急性心肌梗塞患者的数据说明了这一概念.
- 显示的有效样本大小表明患者在发育数据中的代表性.
结论:
- 有效样本大小为个人预测不确定性提供了临床可解释的衡量标准.
- 这一措施可以帮助在模型开发过程中平衡准确性和不确定性.
- 有效的样本大小可以促进临床环境中预测不确定性的沟通.
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