稳定估计移民人口贡献:模拟,敏感性分析和海
Murray Christian1,2, W Chris Oosthuizen2, Marthán N Bester1
1Department of Zoology and Entomology, Mammal Research Institute, University of Pretoria, Hatfield, South Africa.
The Journal of animal ecology
|February 1, 2024
概括
识别成人生存率和移民等关键因素对于人口动态和保护至关重要. 这项研究使用综合种群模型 (IPM) 和生命表反应实验 (tLTREs) 来分析南部海大象种群.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 了解人口统计驱动因素对于生命历史的演变和保护至关重要.
- 综合人口模型 (IPM) 和过渡性生命表响应实验 (tLTREs) 量化了人口对人口变化的贡献.
- 使用IPM估计移民可能会有偏见,需要强大的评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定马里昂岛南方象海种群复苏的驱动因素.
- 评估IPM-tLTRE结论的可靠性,特别是关于移民的结论,使用模拟和敏感性分析.
- 探索高斯过程先验对移民估计的新应用.
主要方法:
- 将贝叶斯的IPM和tLTRE框架应用于40年的南方海大象数据 (计数和标记重新捕获).
- 生存,移民和人口结构对人口增长的量化贡献.
- 通过高斯过程先验和收缩先验进行了灵敏度分析;在不同的时间方差下进行模拟来评估移民估计.
主要成果:
- 成人生存率和移民被确定为最近人口增长的主要驱动因素.
- 移民估计一直很大,尽管对先前的选择敏感.
- 模拟研究证实,估计的移民贡献不太可能是一个偏见的高估值.
结论:
- 女性的分散 (移民) 显著影响当地人口的丰富性,即使出生地忠实度很高.
- 通过敏感性和模拟分析增强的IPM-tLTRE框架,可以得出关于移民的强有力的结论.
- 证明了南方象海种群之间的生态联系.
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