在四个收入群体中测试瓦格纳定律的有效性:动态面板数据分析数据分析
Md Akter Hossain1, M M K Toufique1, Dilruba Yesmin Smrity1
1Department of Economics, Noakhali Science and Technology University, Noakhali-3814, Bangladesh.
Heliyon
|February 1, 2024
概括
这项研究使用1991-2018年20个国家面板数据集对瓦格纳定律进行了测试. 尽管发现了长期关联,但没有证据支持瓦格纳定律跨越各种模型规格.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 瓦格纳定律认为政府规模与经济活动之间存在正相关性.
- 该法对财政政策和经济增长理论有重大影响.
- 最近的关注需要在不同的经济环境中进行经验验证.
研究的目的:
- 实证地调查瓦格纳定律的有效性.
- 为了测试法律的五种不同规格.
- 探索政府收入和贸易额与法律相关的作用.
主要方法:
- 为20个国家 (1991-2018) 开发一个平衡的小组数据集.
- 单元根测试 (LLC,IPS,CADF) 和面板协同整合测试 (Westerlund,Pedroni,Kao) 的应用.
- 使用了面板自回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型与聚合平均组 (PMG) 和动态固定效应 (DFE) 估计器,通过豪斯曼测试选择.
主要成果:
- 面板数据在I(0) 和I(1) 层表现出静止,没有I(2) 系列.
- 纠正错误的术语表明了所有经过测试的瓦格纳定律版本的长期关系和经济趋同.
- 尽管有共同整合的证据,但没有发现对瓦格纳定律的经验支持.
结论:
- 这项研究未能验证瓦格纳定律,即使使用扩展变量和强大的计量经济学技术.
- 长期的经济关联和趋同过程存在,但与瓦格纳定律的预测不一致.
- 调查结果表明,需要重新评估法律在当代经济中的适用性.
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