儿童健康需求和儿科重症监护医学工作人员:2020-2040年
Christopher M Horvat1, Melinda Fiedor Hamilton1, Mark W Hall2
1UPMC Children's Hospital of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Pediatrics
|February 1, 2024
概括
预计到2040年,儿科重症监护医学 (PCCM) 的员工人数将增长105%,超过其他儿科子专业. 未来的需求仍然不确定,可能导致供应过剩.
科学领域:
- 儿科重症监护医学 儿科重症监护医学
- 健康劳动力研究 卫生劳动力研究
- 小专业培训 培训小专业培训
背景情况:
- 儿科重症护理医学 (PCCM) 领域是一个重要的儿科子专业.
- 了解当前和未来的PCCM工作人员对于医疗保健规划至关重要.
- 以前的劳动力分析没有完全捕捉到PCCM的独特轨迹.
研究的目的:
- 分析儿科重症监护医疗工作人员的现状.
- 从2020年到2040年预测PCCM子专家的供应.
- 评估影响PCCM员工动态和未来潜在失衡的因素.
主要方法:
- 文献综述和对美国儿科学会数据的分析.
- 利用美国儿科会基金会和合作者开发的劳动力供应模型.
- 模拟PCCM在各种模拟条件下的劳动力预测.
主要成果:
- 预计到2040年,在基线条件下,PCCM员工人数将增加105%,超过其他儿科子专业.
- 模拟的多因素条件只显示了对劳动力供应预测的适度变化.
- 对PCCM专家的未来需求是不确定的,有可能出现供应过剩.
结论:
- 预计PCCM劳动力将经历大幅增长,可能导致供应过剩.
- 调查结果需要对受训人员,培训计划和管理机构进行仔细考虑.
- 需要进一步的研究来澄清未来的需求,并指导PCCM的劳动力规划.
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