儿童健康需求和儿科科子专业的劳动力:2020-2040年
Darcy K Weidemann1,2, Colin J Orr3, Victoria Norwood4
1Division of Nephrology, Department of Pediatrics, Children's Mercy Kansas City, Kansas City, Missouri.
Pediatrics
|February 1, 2024
概括
由于实习生兴趣的下降,儿科脏病学面临着劳动力危机. 预测显示增长有限,有可能无法满足未来对儿科脏护理的需求.
科学领域:
- 儿科脏病学 儿科脏病学
- 健康劳动力研究 卫生劳动力研究
- 护理子专业 护理子专业
背景情况:
- 儿科脏病学结合了急性和慢性护理,用于患有脏疾病的儿童.
- 在过去的二十年中,学员对儿科脏病学的兴趣有所下降.
- 由于数据有限,人们对儿科脏病学工作人员的担忧越来越大.
研究的目的:
- 从2020年到2040年,预测未来的儿科脏病学家供应量.
- 分析影响劳动力供应的因素,包括人口增长和学员兴趣.
- 识别潜在的劳动力短缺和地理差异.
主要方法:
- 利用现有的文献和美国儿科学会的数据.
- 采用卡罗来纳州健康劳动力研究中心开发的劳动力投影模型.
- 模拟了替代场景,根据实习生的兴趣,临床努力和消耗情况进行调整.
主要成果:
- 基线模型预测到2040年,临床工作等效率将增长26%.
- 越来越大的地理差异加剧了供需之间的不匹配.
- 最糟糕的情况预计只有13%的增长,保持紧张的劳动力.
结论:
- 教育,培训,薪酬,实践模式和政策方面的紧急改革是必要的.
- 目前的发展轨迹有可能导致儿科脏病专业的劳动力不足以满足未来的需求.
- 解决兴趣的下降和改善劳动力分配至关重要.
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