儿童健康和儿童肺病学工作人员:2020-2040年
Terry L Noah1, Debra Boyer2, Stephanie D Davis1
1Department of Pediatrics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Pediatrics
|February 1, 2024
概括
儿科肺病学工作人员的数量正在增长,预计到2040年,每名儿童的子专家人数将增加20-40%. 虽然供应可能满足需求,但地理差异和多样性挑战仍然存在.
科学领域:
- 儿科子专业 劳动力分析
- 医疗保健 劳动力规划 医疗保健 劳动力规划
- 肺病学研究 肺病学研究
背景情况:
- 人们担心儿科肺病学 (PULM) 副专家的供应是否足以满足未来的需求.
- 这项研究是美国儿科委员会 (ABP) 基金会的一项更大计划的一部分,旨在调查未来的儿科子专业劳动力.
研究的目的:
- 评估美国当前的儿科肺病学临床工作人员.
- 估计到2040年的儿科肺病学未来临床劳动力供应情况.
- 确定劳动力人口统计和地理分布的趋势.
主要方法:
- 利用美国儿科学会 (ABP) 认证和维护认证数据来评估当前的劳动力.
- 开发了一个劳动力供应模型,将人口增长,临床努力和地理趋势纳入其中.
- 将ABP数据纳入劳动力供应模型,用于未来的预测.
主要成果:
- 在过去的十年里,儿科肺病学家的数量稳步增加.
- 预计在未来二十年内,儿科肺病学家与儿童的比例将增加20-40%,尽管绝对数字仍然很低.
- 预计访问的地理差异将持续存在,多样性指标 (妇女,代表性不足的少数民族) 显示出混合的进展.
结论:
- 目前的儿科肺病学劳动力发展趋势表明,它有能力满足预计的人口增长和对临床服务的需求增加.
- 地理分布不良和人口多样性的持续挑战可能会继续影响获得护理的机会.
- 建议包括解决访问差异,促进多样性,并考虑对培训,实践和政策的影响.
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