美国各县自然死亡率过高及其与报告的COVID-19死亡人数相关
Eugenio Paglino1, Dielle J Lundberg2,3, Elizabeth Wrigley-Field4
1Department of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
概括
美国自然死亡人数的过剩明显超过了报告的COVID-19死亡人数. 许多归因于其他原因的死亡可能是未被确认的COVID-19死亡,特别是在非大都市地区.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 在COVID-19大流行期间,美国过度死亡的估计总是超过报告的COVID-19死亡人数.
- 过多的自然死亡可能源于未被诊断的COVID-19,医疗保健中断或大流行的社会经济后果.
- 分析这些死亡的地理和时间模式对于了解其潜在原因至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计美国各县级的自然死亡率在流行病的最初30个月.
- 调查自然死亡过多和COVID-19死亡报告之间的关系.
- 确定过度死亡率的地理差异及其归因.
主要方法:
- 开发贝叶斯层次模型来估计每月自然死亡率的过剩.
- 对2020年3月至2022年8月美国各县的数据进行分析.
- 估计的自然死亡过剩与报告的COVID-19死亡人数的比较.
主要成果:
- 从2020年3月到2022年8月,全国发生了超过119万例自然死亡.
- 大约有162,886例自然死亡不归因于COVID-19.
- 在非大都市县和特定地区 (西部,南部) 观察到过多的非COVID-19死亡与报告的COVID-19死亡的比率较高.
结论:
- 在大流行期间,大量自然死亡可能是未被确认的COVID-19死亡.
- 报告的COVID-19死亡和非COVID-19自然原因死亡的时间相关性支持了这一结论.
- 地理差异凸显了大流行病及其对不同美国人口的报告的影响的差异.
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