战略控制模型,用于在紧急情况下延迟恐慌传播
Rongjian Lv1, Hua Li2, Qiubai Sun2
1School of Electronics and Information Engineering, University of Science and Technology Liaoning, Anshan, Liaoning, China.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|February 2, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一种SEIR延迟恐慌传播模型,以了解在紧急情况下的恐慌传播. 开发并模拟了一种政府控制策略,使用国家延迟反,以有效地管理和消除群体内的恐慌.
科学领域:
- 数学流行病学数学流行病学
- 社会动态建模 社会动态建模
- 非线性控制系统 不线性控制系统
背景情况:
- 在紧急情况下,恐慌在群体环境中迅速传播,类似于流行病爆发.
- 了解恐慌传播机制和决策对于社会稳定至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往不考虑时间延迟或时间变化的感染率.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个数学模型的恐慌传播,包括时间延迟和时间变化的感染率.
- 提出和分析政府控制战略,以减轻和消除恐慌.
- 确保拟议的控制战略的稳定性和有效性.
主要方法:
- 调整了SEIR (易感-暴露-传染-恢复) 流行病学模型,以包括恐慌动态.
- 引入了时间变化的感染率和易受和暴露状态之间的延迟效应.
- 应用了精确的线性化和状态延迟反控制,以确定控制规律并证明系统的稳定性.
主要成果:
- 建立了一个新的SEIR延迟恐慌传播模型,并计算了其基本再生数.
- 通过使用状态延迟反来管理恐慌传播的稳定控制法.
- 模拟证明了拟议策略在消除恐慌和实现非对称恢复方面的有效性.
结论:
- 开发的SEIR延迟恐慌传播模型为分析恐慌动态提供了一个强大的框架.
- 拟议的政府控制战略在理论上是合理的,并且在恐慌缓解方面实际适用.
- 该研究成功地展示了一种控制和消除小组环境中的恐慌的方法,确保社会福祉.
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