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相关概念视频

Regression Toward the Mean01:52

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Regression toward the mean (“RTM”) is a phenomenon in which extremely high or low values—for example, and individual’s blood pressure at a particular moment—appear closer to a group’s average upon remeasuring. Although this statistical peculiarity is the result of random error and chance, it has been problematic across various medical, scientific, financial and psychological applications. In particular, RTM, if not taken into account, can interfere when...
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According to some social psychologists, people tend to overemphasize internal factors as explanations—or attributions—for the behavior of other people. They tend to assume that the behavior of another person is a trait of that person, and to underestimate the power of the situation on the behavior of others. They tend to fail to recognize when the behavior of another is due to situational variables, and thus to the person’s state. This erroneous assumption is...
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相关实验视频

Updated: Jul 4, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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贝叶斯主义者对博士的看法 一个邪恶的场景.

Feraz Azhar1,2, Alan H Guth3, Mohammad Hossein Namjoo4

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概括

这项研究批评了Adam Elga对自我定位信仰的冷漠原则. 作者认为,埃尔加的推理是循环的,因为它假定了它旨在证明的原则.

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科学领域:

  • 认识论的认识论学.
  • 概率哲学概率的哲学

背景情况:

  • 亚当·埃尔加 (Adam Elga) 提出了一种对自我定位信仰无动于衷的原则.
  • 这个原则建议对不可区分的主观状态给予平等的信任.
  • 埃尔加使用思想实验来证明这一原则.

研究的目的:

  • 分析埃尔加对无关原则的证明的逻辑结构.
  • 用贝叶斯式方法评估埃尔加推理的有效性.
  • 为了确定埃尔加的原理是否可以从他的思想实验中推导出来.

主要方法:

  • 贝叶斯对哲学论证的分析.
  • 在认识论学中批判性地检查思想实验.
  • 对自我定位信念原则的逻辑评估.

主要成果:

  • 埃尔加在他的第三个思想实验中的推理是循环的.
  • 理由依赖于假设它试图证明的冷漠原则.
  • 无关原则不能像声称的那样得到推导.

结论:

  • 由于循环推理,埃尔加对冷漠原则的辩护没有成功.
  • 虽然冷漠原则是合理的,但它的推导是有缺陷的.
  • 贝叶斯的方法揭示了证明自我定位的信仰信念的循环性.