评估印度洋东部ECMWF系统的季节性预测错误
Michael Mayer1,2, Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda1, Stephanie Johnson1
1Research Department, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, UK.
概括
季节性预测系统与赤道东印度洋 (EEIO) 的变化扎,原因是两个主要错误:偏差的大气循环和浅海热线. 这些因素在这个气候敏感地区造成了重大的预测不准确性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 赤道东印度洋 (EEIO) 显著影响大陆气候异常和全球远程连接.
- 现有的季节性预测系统在预测EEIO变化时显示出大量错误.
研究的目的:
- 确定ECMWF季节性预测系统SEAS5对EEIO的预测错误的根本原因.
- 分析导致这些错误的大气和海洋因素之间的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 使用定制诊断和一系列数值实验来调查SEAS5预测错误.
- 分析了大气循环偏差和海洋地下条件,包括热带深度和初始条件.
主要成果:
- 确定了两个独立的错误来源:太强的东方大气循环偏差和浅层热线.
- 大气偏差导致寒冷的海面温度 (SST) 和浅热线,而海洋误差则被风驱动的SST误差放大.
- 预测错误取决于制度 (温暖与寒冷的制度) 并表现出十年的变化,使校准复杂化.
结论:
- EEIO的预测错误源于合的大气和海洋过程,初始的海洋条件和模型版本起着至关重要的作用.
- 解决这些根本错误来源对于改善EEIO的季节性气候预测及其下游影响至关重要.
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